Cullen: Predators have D, search for scoring

A team that plays a defence-first style isn't necessarily conducive to fantasy value, so the Nashville Predators tend to fare better in the standings than they might when it comes time to pick out top scorers.

Considering their offensive limitations, perhaps it's no surprise that the Predators' best fantasy prospect could be goaltender Pekka Rinne, who dazzled with a .930 save percentage last season. It might be unreasonable to expect Rinne to continue at that level, but any team would readily take his career save percentage of .920 and 2.33 goals against average in 60-plus starts.

Blueliner Shea Weber has scored 55 goals over the last three seasons; he and Mike Green are the only two defencemen in the league with more than 41 in that time, yet Weber's assist totals tend to be relatively modest (and he's been more disciplined in recent seasons), so he's not as valuable in fantasy hockey as he is in reality to the Predators.

Weber's partner, Ryan Suter, is similarly more valued in reality, particularly due to low goal-scoring numbers, but the pairing of Weber and Suter could be the best in the game -- if not, they're in the discussion -- so how they play and produce could make a real difference on the Predators' fortunes.

When it comes to forwards, because they don't have any big-time playmaking centres, the Predators offer more value on the wings. Patric Hornqvist has 51 goals and is plus-29 over the last two seasons, making him one of 13 players to have at least 50 goals and a plus-25 rating in that span. He's much closer to the low-end of that group in value, but Hornqvist could make an even bigger impact if the Predators had a more successful power play.

Similary, Martin Erat has been a productive, scoring between 49 and 57 points in each of the last seven seasons, including last year when his 50 points in 64 games ranked as the second-best rate of his career. There does appear to be a ceiling in place at this stage of the 30-year-old's career, but that's still enough to warrant selection in many leagues.

A fresh outlook in Nashville certainly turned Sergei Kostitsyn's career in the right direction and he put up a career-high 23 goals and 50 points last season, scoring 47 points in his last 58 games. Kostitsyn might be due for more power play time this season, but his shaky track record to this point in his career also means he comes with some level of risk.

Though the Predators have solid two-way performers down the middle, they aren't big scorers, and usually not enough to generate widespread fantasy interest. Mike Fisher has been durable, missing ten games over the last four seasons, but has only scored more than 50 points once in his career and he finished with just 36 points last season. At a deep centre position, that's rarely enough production to matter.

Likewise, David Legwand has a 63-point season in 2006-2007 that stands out from the crowd because he usually falls in the range of 40-50 points. Legwand did score a point-per-game in March and performed well in the playoffs (six goals, nine points in 12 games), but it's difficult to forecast an offensive breakthrough for the 31-year-old pivot.

Perhaps Cal O'Reilly is best-suited to be the playmking centre on the Predators' roster, but last year brought a career-high 18 points in 38 games before he suffered a broken leg, so it's difficult to project big things for a 25-year-old still trying to establish his place in the lineup.

For those in deep leagues, there may be some upside in young Predators like winger Niclas Bergfors or defenceman Jonathon Blum. Bergfors fell out of favour in Atlanta (and, apparently, Florida) last season, but if Kostitsyn could get his game on track in Nashville, perhaps a similar rejuvenation could be in the cards for Bergfors.

Blum showed well in 23 games with the Predators last season, so he still holds rookie status and may be the third-best offensive defenceman on the roster, behind Weber and Suter, depending on whether or not Ryan Ellis is fit to make the jump straight from junior. It's rare that the Predators would promote a defenceman immediately from junior, but if Ellis gets a shot, he'll have to get power play time to maximize his value.

Young forwards like Colin Wilson and Blake Geoffrion both have some offensive pedigree, at least in college and the AHL, so they could end up playing scoring roles at some point for the Predators. Likewise, rookie Craig Smith, fresh out of the University of Wisconsin, is an interesting rookie prospect. Smith played well for Team USA at the World Championships and dominated at the Predators' rookie tournament. Maybe it's too soon to place offensive expectations on Smith, but he'll be worth keeping an eye on as the season approaches.

Scoring has never been a strong suit for the Predators and that simply means digging deeper when it comes time to find individual fantasy value on the roster.

Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen.  For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook.

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Cullen: Ovechkin the pick to lead scoring race in 2011-2012

Coming off a career-low 85-point season, Alexander Ovechkin is forecasted to bounce back and lead the league in scoring in the 2011-2012 NHL Point Projections.

There are a few reasons to consider Ovechkin as a candidate for a bounceback season. First off, his shooting percentage of 8.7% was easily the lowest of his career, well below his average of 11.9%, so there's a fair chance that he'll score more goals this year.

Another reason to suspect that Ovechkin could bounce back is that the Washington power play, which ranked first in 2009-2010 and second in 2008-2009, dropped to 16th last year. A Capital rebound with the man advantage should result in an increase in Ovechkin's power play scoring. He settled for a career-low 24 power play points last season after averaging 41.6 power play points in the previous five seasons.

If he's out of shape, as some off-season rumours might suggest, then Ovechkin's projection might be different (see Dustin Byfuglien) but, for now at least, we'll go on the presumption that he's as ready to play as the vast majority of the players in the league.

So, the expectation is that Ovechkin will finish with 102 points, one ahead of Tampa Bay's Steven Stamkos, for the Art Ross Trophy as league scoring leader.

Tandems find their place in the Top 10, with Martin St. Louis riding shotgun with Stamkos in Tampa Bay, Vancouver's Sedin Twins continuing their perennial scoring assault and the Ducks' Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry also picked for the Top 10.

The wildcard remains Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby, who is pegged for 10th, with 80 points in 55 games, but the uncertainty surrounding his return from post-concussion syndrome makes it difficult to get an accurate read on his value for the upcoming season.

More fantasy information will follow this week, as TSN launches its Fantasy Hockey League Manager on Friday, September 9, coinciding with the release of my Top 300 fantasy rankings, along with position-by-position rankings.

For now, though, enjoy the appetizer of the Top 300 projected scorers and I'll update them, along with the fantasy rankings before the season starts when injuries and other news start to come out of NHL camps and keep following TSN.ca's 30 Teams in 30 Days NHL Preview, which includes my take on each team's statistical leaders.

Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy on Facebook.

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Cullen: Blackhawks full of premier talent

Suffering from a Stanley Cup hangover, and the gutting of their roster that followed, the Chicago Blackhawks struggled at times in 2010-2011, but were a better team than their place in the standings might suggest, closer to contenders than pretenders.

Unlike many of his teammates, Jonathan Toews simply continued his career ascent, setting career highs in goals, assists, points, plus-minus and time on ice. It could be asking a lot of Toews to set new career marks in his fifth NHL season, but even if he won't necessarily put up elite scoring numbers, he's so reliable and well-rounded (with a double digit plus rating in each of his four NHL seasons) that he's among the safest selections going into the season.

Toews' running mate, Patrick Kane, may be a little more volatile, and is recovering from a wrist injury suffered this summer, yet he's also the only right winger (depending which wing you assign to Martin St. Louis) in the league to have scored at least 70 points in each of the last four seasons. Kane has the ability to match the 88 points and plus-16 rating he registered in 2009-2010, but it's safer to expect his point total to fall in the 70-75 range.

Coming off a career-high 71-point seasoon, Patrick Sharp is working his way into a more prominent role. He's not at the level of Kane or Toews, but his value isn't that far off, particularly in leagues that give Sharp wing eligibility. Over the last four seasons, Sharp is one of 23 NHLers to have scored at least .40 goals per game.

Prior to signing in Chicago, Marian Hossa had been quite durable, playing at least 72 games in nine straight seasons, but he's missed 42 games over the last two seasons, cutting into his production. Even so, Hossa has scored at least 24 goals and 50 points for 11 straight seasons and that kind of reliability, combined with the possibility that he could have a reasonably healthy season, makes Hossa quite valuable.

After winning the Norris Trophy in 2009-2010, Duncan Keith struggled at times last season, finishing with an uncharacteristic minus rating. Keith still has the game to rank among the best blueliners in the league, and any kind of rebound effort from Keith will have his numbers close to the best at the position.

As Keith's value declined last year, Brent Seabrook rose to the challenge, putting in the best offensive season of his career, scoring 48 points. Maybe Seabrook isn't quite as offensively-inclined as some other defencemen, but his well-rounded game makes him a safe, reliable pick in all leagues.

It took nearly half a season for Corey Crawford to take over the starting job, but he impressed when he finally got his chance. With only one full NHL season under his belt, Crawford does present some risk, but his upside, as the clear starter on a contending team, will make him worthy of interest on draft day.

Ray Emery and Alexander Salak will battle for the backup job behind Crawford and either one of them could be an interesting deep sleeper. Crawford is the established number one, but he's been established in that role for less than half a season. If he falters or gets hurt, then one of the backups could see significant playing time.

If he could stay healthy, centre Dave Bolland might be primed for a move into the spotlight. After his sensational postseason play over the last three years (34 points in 43 playoff games), there is enough evidence that Bolland could be at least a 50-point centre, but he has to stay in the lineup. Bolland has missed 64 games over the last two regular seasons, so it's difficult to suddenly expect a full season out of him, but he is a factor when he plays.

With a strong core of forwards, the Blackhawks have complementary wingers that might provide some value, depending on how the playing time shakes out. Veteran Andrew Brunette never misses a game and, even if he's not the most fleet afoot, still has soft mitts down low in the offensive zone. He's averaged 57 points per season over the last 11 years, so despite low penalty minute totals, he's often useful depth at a shallow left wing position.

Bryan Bickell was a solid contributor in his rookie season and might produce more if given a more offensive role, but he may simply be a better fit in a third-line role with the Blackhawks, which could limit his offensive upside.

For leagues that reward penalty minutes newcomer Daniel Carcillo may have value. He'll have to score more than the six points in 57 games he managed for the Flyers last year, but he's had two seasons with at least 20 points and 200 penalty minutes and that combo would work in deep leagues.

Talented winger Michael Frolik saw his production drop in his third NHL season and it actually got worse in Chicago after he was acquired from Florida. The skilled 23-year-old is a classic sleeper who has already registered two 20-goal seasons and has the creativity to hit for 30 in the right circumstances. This year, a return to 20-plus is a reasonable target.

For those in deep leagues, consider Viktor Stalberg in later rounds. He had a modest 24 points last season, but played just 10:42 per game. If Stalberg happened to earn a spot among the top six forwards and played 15 minutes a night, he could have a breakthrough season.

Their strong core makes the Blackhawks a desirable team when it comes to fantasy, not only for the top level guys, but also picking around the edges to get value from the likes of Bolland, Frolik and others.

Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen.  For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook.

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